I think the Sudanese civil war is a relevant comparison. I’d take the typical EA point to be something like:
“If Western diplomats spent as much time as they’ve (ineffectively) spent trying to avert famine / improve aid in Gaza as ending the war in Sudan, it seems like there would have been much more progress—fewer dead, starving, maimed, irreparably emotionally harmed.”
Or one level deeper, there are probably conflicts that are not yet happening that we could decrease the likelihood of and that are probably even more neglected. I’m thinking of Ethiopia and Tigray, which seems like it could flare up again. It’s probably easier to avert a war than stop it, and fewer people are focused on it for normal reasons related to attention and incentives (preventing things that aren’t naturally inevitable is always undersupplied because you rarely if ever get credit).
To a broader formulation of the question: “Should more EAs be focusing on reducing conflicts given their role in causing suffering and sapping the potential of sentient life?”—I am deeply sympathetic to this. But between conflicts I think we should still apply the prioritization lens.
I think the Sudanese civil war is a relevant comparison. I’d take the typical EA point to be something like:
“If Western diplomats spent as much time as they’ve (ineffectively) spent trying to avert famine / improve aid in Gaza as ending the war in Sudan, it seems like there would have been much more progress—fewer dead, starving, maimed, irreparably emotionally harmed.”
Or one level deeper, there are probably conflicts that are not yet happening that we could decrease the likelihood of and that are probably even more neglected. I’m thinking of Ethiopia and Tigray, which seems like it could flare up again. It’s probably easier to avert a war than stop it, and fewer people are focused on it for normal reasons related to attention and incentives (preventing things that aren’t naturally inevitable is always undersupplied because you rarely if ever get credit).
To a broader formulation of the question: “Should more EAs be focusing on reducing conflicts given their role in causing suffering and sapping the potential of sentient life?”—I am deeply sympathetic to this. But between conflicts I think we should still apply the prioritization lens.