Thank you for your response, David! One quick observation:
I think the idea cluster of existential risk reduction was formed through something I’d call “research”. I think, in a certain way, we need more work of this type.
I agree that the current idea cluster of existential risk reduction was formed through research. However, it seems that one key difference between our views is: you seem to be optimistic that future research of this type (though different in some ways, as you say later) would uncover similarly useful insights, while I tend to think that the space of crucial considerations we can reliably identify with this type of research has been almost exhausted. (NB I think there are many more crucial considerations “out there”, it’s just that I’m skeptical we can find them.)
If this is right, then it seems we actually make different predictions about the future, and you could prove me wrong by delivering valuable strategy research outputs within the next few years.
Thank you for your response, David! One quick observation:
I agree that the current idea cluster of existential risk reduction was formed through research. However, it seems that one key difference between our views is: you seem to be optimistic that future research of this type (though different in some ways, as you say later) would uncover similarly useful insights, while I tend to think that the space of crucial considerations we can reliably identify with this type of research has been almost exhausted. (NB I think there are many more crucial considerations “out there”, it’s just that I’m skeptical we can find them.)
If this is right, then it seems we actually make different predictions about the future, and you could prove me wrong by delivering valuable strategy research outputs within the next few years.
Indeed! We hope we can deliver that sooner rather than later. Though foundational research may need time to properly come to fruition.