Every financial security requires a matching liability. Who or what owes the money at maturity? If it’s funded out of general taxation it’s a vote on whether non-holders should pay money to the holders. Holders are incentivized to give high numbers, non-holders are incentivized to give low numbers, and accurate retrospective judgements don’t seem to be relevant at all.
My guess is that the price falls rapidly to zero, like failed crypto schemes, though the game theory is not totally clear.
Every financial security requires a matching liability. Who or what owes the money at maturity? If it’s funded out of general taxation it’s a vote on whether non-holders should pay money to the holders. Holders are incentivized to give high numbers, non-holders are incentivized to give low numbers, and accurate retrospective judgements don’t seem to be relevant at all.
My guess is that the price falls rapidly to zero, like failed crypto schemes, though the game theory is not totally clear.