that they’re skeptical of funding independent researchers
Just for the record, this is definitely not an accurate one-line summary of my stance, and I am pretty confident it’s also not a very good summary of other people on the LTFF. Indeed, I don’t know of almost any other funding body that has funded as many independent researchers as the LTFF.
The linked post just says that Adam “tends to apply a fairly high bar to long-term independent research”, which I do agree implies some level of hesitation, but I don’t think it implies a general stance of skepticism towards funding independent researchers. My model here is that there are certain people for whom independent research is a pretty big trap for, and this does imply a certain level of hesitation on making a marginal grant. Many really great things will come out of independent research, but I do also think for some people trying to pursue an independent research path will be a really big waste of human capital, and potentially cause some pretty bad experiences, and I do think this implies thinking carefully through independent research grants.
Independent research seems superior to graduate school for multiple reasons, but one factor is that the time commitment is much lower.
In my opinion it’s not enough to carefully think through independent research grants… with so much longtermist funding centralized through your organization, you also have to carefully think through a default of funneling people through another thing that can waste a lot of human capital and cause a lot of bad experiences, but lasts 5-10x longer.
Sure. Well when the LTFF funds graduate students who aren’t even directly focused on improving the long-term future, just to help them advance their careers, I think that sends a strong signal that the LTFF thinks grad school should be the default path. Counterfactually, if grad school is 5-10x the risk of independent research, it seems like you should be 5-10x as hesitant to fund grad students compared to independent researchers. (Assuming for the moment that paternalism is in fact the correct orientation for a grantmaker to have.)
Counterfactually, if grad school is 5-10x the risk of independent research, it seems like you should be 5-10x as hesitant to fund grad students compared to independent researchers.
I don’t think that’s an accurate estimate of the relevant risk. I don’t think risk goes up linearly with time. Many people quit their PhDs when they aren’t a good fit.
Well when the LTFF funds graduate students who aren’t even directly focused on improving the long-term future, just to help them advance their careers, I think that sends a strong signal that the LTFF thinks grad school should be the default path.
I mean, I don’t think there is currently a great “default path” for doing work on the long-term future. I feel like we’ve said some things to that effect. I think grad school is a fine choice for some people, but I think we are funding many fewer people for grad school than we are funding them for independent research (there are some people who we are funding for an independent research project during grad school, but that really isn’t the same as funding someone for grad school), but would have to make a detailed count to be totally confident of this. Pretty confident this is true for my grant votes/recommendations.
I don’t think risk goes up linearly with time. Many people quit their PhDs when they aren’t a good fit.
Fair enough.
Maybe a pragmatic solution here is to emphasize to people who get a grant to do independent research that they can quit and give back the remainder of their grant at any time?
Just for the record, this is definitely not an accurate one-line summary of my stance, and I am pretty confident it’s also not a very good summary of other people on the LTFF. Indeed, I don’t know of almost any other funding body that has funded as many independent researchers as the LTFF.
The linked post just says that Adam “tends to apply a fairly high bar to long-term independent research”, which I do agree implies some level of hesitation, but I don’t think it implies a general stance of skepticism towards funding independent researchers. My model here is that there are certain people for whom independent research is a pretty big trap for, and this does imply a certain level of hesitation on making a marginal grant. Many really great things will come out of independent research, but I do also think for some people trying to pursue an independent research path will be a really big waste of human capital, and potentially cause some pretty bad experiences, and I do think this implies thinking carefully through independent research grants.
I think you’re splitting hairs here—my point is that your “hesitation” doesn’t really seem to be justified by the data.
I think this is even more true for graduate school:
https://www.benkuhn.net/grad/
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/bolotnyy/files/bbb_mentalhealth_paper.pdf
Independent research seems superior to graduate school for multiple reasons, but one factor is that the time commitment is much lower.
In my opinion it’s not enough to carefully think through independent research grants… with so much longtermist funding centralized through your organization, you also have to carefully think through a default of funneling people through another thing that can waste a lot of human capital and cause a lot of bad experiences, but lasts 5-10x longer.
I am indeed even more hesitant to recommend grad school to people than independent research. See my comments here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5zedDETncHasvxGrr/should-you-do-a-phd-in-science?commentId=hK2tso7Jexhvmvsfb
Sure. Well when the LTFF funds graduate students who aren’t even directly focused on improving the long-term future, just to help them advance their careers, I think that sends a strong signal that the LTFF thinks grad school should be the default path. Counterfactually, if grad school is 5-10x the risk of independent research, it seems like you should be 5-10x as hesitant to fund grad students compared to independent researchers. (Assuming for the moment that paternalism is in fact the correct orientation for a grantmaker to have.)
I don’t think that’s an accurate estimate of the relevant risk. I don’t think risk goes up linearly with time. Many people quit their PhDs when they aren’t a good fit.
I mean, I don’t think there is currently a great “default path” for doing work on the long-term future. I feel like we’ve said some things to that effect. I think grad school is a fine choice for some people, but I think we are funding many fewer people for grad school than we are funding them for independent research (there are some people who we are funding for an independent research project during grad school, but that really isn’t the same as funding someone for grad school), but would have to make a detailed count to be totally confident of this. Pretty confident this is true for my grant votes/recommendations.
Fair enough.
Maybe a pragmatic solution here is to emphasize to people who get a grant to do independent research that they can quit and give back the remainder of their grant at any time?
Yeah, I think we’ve done that a few times, but not confident. Would have to look over a bunch of records to be confident.