Your likelihood_pool method is returning Brier scores >1. How is that possible? Also, unless you extremize, it should yield the same aggregates (and scores) as regular geometric mean of odds, no?
I am so dumb I was mistakenly using odds instead of probs to compute the brier score :facepalm:
And yes, you are right, we should extremize before aggregating. Otherwise, the method is equivalent to geo mean of odds.
It’s still not very good though
Your likelihood_pool method is returning Brier scores >1. How is that possible? Also, unless you extremize, it should yield the same aggregates (and scores) as regular geometric mean of odds, no?
I am so dumb I was mistakenly using odds instead of probs to compute the brier score :facepalm:
And yes, you are right, we should extremize before aggregating. Otherwise, the method is equivalent to geo mean of odds.
It’s still not very good though