Another approach: According to the Zoe Covid study, 280,000 people in the UK got Covid today. That’s 0.4% of the UK. So if that’s the baseline for one day, we get a 1% baseline for the 2.5 days of the conference.
I assume that EAs take more tests than the average person (esp. now that tests have scaled back) but that attending a conference is substantially more risky than the average behavior. I probably expect there to be more than 1% infections during EAG for that reason, but maybe not a lot more? With the 1% prior/anchoring, I’m thinking >5% is a bit too high, so I now put less than 25% probability mass on that. But my median is well above 1%.
Another approach: According to the Zoe Covid study, 280,000 people in the UK got Covid today. That’s 0.4% of the UK. So if that’s the baseline for one day, we get a 1% baseline for the 2.5 days of the conference.
I assume that EAs take more tests than the average person (esp. now that tests have scaled back) but that attending a conference is substantially more risky than the average behavior. I probably expect there to be more than 1% infections during EAG for that reason, but maybe not a lot more? With the 1% prior/anchoring, I’m thinking >5% is a bit too high, so I now put less than 25% probability mass on that. But my median is well above 1%.