The argument goes 1) there is a finite amount of energy available, limited by solar capacity, 2) decoupling of energy from the economy is ultimately limited; we can only grow non-energy intense parts of the economy so much as a percentage of the overall economy, 3) space colonization is extremely difficult if not impossible given how inhospitable space is, and therefore 4) economic growth will eventually cease given limited energy and resources.
He also mentions thermodynamic limits to surface heat rejection via blackbody radiation. We may be able to get around that by moving most computation to space. Though I imagine that being a harder collective action problem to solve than climate change presently.
Galactic expansion through digital minds may be a possibility that gets around the human biological limits to space expansions, but it’s unclear that the timing will line up conveniently. Our rate of economic expansion may hit hard energy and resources limits before a galactic digital mind expansion, regardless of whether it is possible.
Ultimately I don’t see how it’s possible to get around the energy limitations. As long as there are energy requirements for people—biological or otherwise—then it doesn’t seem possible to indefinitely shrink the energy intensity of the economy to an arbitrarily small value.
Do we really imagine the future of the economy to be increasingly faster trading of multi-trillion dollar cat holograms? Is that humanity’s destiny?
A bit late to the discussion here, but I wanted to re-emphasize the slightly nearer term limits that Holden brought up by Tom Murphy in his “Do The Math” blog, first presented a decade ago:
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/
This is formalized in Chapters 1&2 in a textbook he just released: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9js5291m
The argument goes 1) there is a finite amount of energy available, limited by solar capacity, 2) decoupling of energy from the economy is ultimately limited; we can only grow non-energy intense parts of the economy so much as a percentage of the overall economy, 3) space colonization is extremely difficult if not impossible given how inhospitable space is, and therefore 4) economic growth will eventually cease given limited energy and resources.
He also mentions thermodynamic limits to surface heat rejection via blackbody radiation. We may be able to get around that by moving most computation to space. Though I imagine that being a harder collective action problem to solve than climate change presently.
Galactic expansion through digital minds may be a possibility that gets around the human biological limits to space expansions, but it’s unclear that the timing will line up conveniently. Our rate of economic expansion may hit hard energy and resources limits before a galactic digital mind expansion, regardless of whether it is possible.
Ultimately I don’t see how it’s possible to get around the energy limitations. As long as there are energy requirements for people—biological or otherwise—then it doesn’t seem possible to indefinitely shrink the energy intensity of the economy to an arbitrarily small value.
Do we really imagine the future of the economy to be increasingly faster trading of multi-trillion dollar cat holograms? Is that humanity’s destiny?