This is a really good analysis! Thanks for posting.
A few notes I thought of as I read:
You state that youāre worried about campaigns to stop or prevent snake ownership possibly increasing publicity around pet snakes and increasing their numbers. I think you could try to estimate this effect by looking at similar cases of ānegative publicity against a certain petā.
For example, when a pet dog kills someone in a way that gets widely reported, do sales of that dog breed tend to go down, or up? Did this story lead to less python ownership in the UK? (These numbers may not be possible to find, but since this question may apply to other CE analyses around pet predators, seems worth a shot!)
Since RP is considering interventions to prevent mouse suffering, are there plans to look at changing agricultural policy to protect field mice? This article estimates 6-40 animals killed per acre of grain, per year (seems to be mostly mice), but notes high uncertainty around both the number and the counterfactual outcome for these animals.
I didnāt see you mention ārecommending alternative snakesā as a possible intervention. Even if all the most popular snakes are whole-animal carnivores, I wonder how many people who want to buy a snake would be open to choosing one that eats insects or eggs, rather than whole mice? (Iām not sure how insect/āchicken suffering would be affected by this choice, but intuitively it seems less bad than raising so many mice in such poor conditions.)
This post is by Rethink Priorities (RP), notCharity Entrepreneurship (CE)! These two organisations are not affiliated. RP does foundational research on neglected causes. CE aims to create high-impact charities.
My worry is that many people might not even know that owning a pet snake is a possibility. Any publicity about this issue could make more people aware that they can own snakes, which could lead to increased sales of pet snakes. I donāt know if this concern is valid, itās based only on my intuitions, and your intuitions are as good as mine here. Everyone knows that dogs can be pets, so the situation is not analogous. Unfortunately, the impact of news stories on snake ownership canāt be evaluated because there is not enough data about snake ownership. There is only yearly data for the UK and it has a large margin of error. In other countries there is much less data.
I wouldnāt know how recommending alternative snakes could be done effectively. It may also be difficult to do without sending a message that itās ok to own pet snakes. And yes, I am similarly extremely uncertain about whether that would be an improvement.
One day Iād like to look into changing agricultural practices to protect field mice, it does seem to be an important topic. However, itās not in immediate RP plans.
This is a really good analysis! Thanks for posting.
A few notes I thought of as I read:
You state that youāre worried about campaigns to stop or prevent snake ownership possibly increasing publicity around pet snakes and increasing their numbers. I think you could try to estimate this effect by looking at similar cases of ānegative publicity against a certain petā.
For example, when a pet dog kills someone in a way that gets widely reported, do sales of that dog breed tend to go down, or up? Did this story lead to less python ownership in the UK? (These numbers may not be possible to find, but since this question may apply to other CE analyses around pet predators, seems worth a shot!)
Since RP is considering interventions to prevent mouse suffering, are there plans to look at changing agricultural policy to protect field mice? This article estimates 6-40 animals killed per acre of grain, per year (seems to be mostly mice), but notes high uncertainty around both the number and the counterfactual outcome for these animals.
I didnāt see you mention ārecommending alternative snakesā as a possible intervention. Even if all the most popular snakes are whole-animal carnivores, I wonder how many people who want to buy a snake would be open to choosing one that eats insects or eggs, rather than whole mice? (Iām not sure how insect/āchicken suffering would be affected by this choice, but intuitively it seems less bad than raising so many mice in such poor conditions.)
This post is by Rethink Priorities (RP), not Charity Entrepreneurship (CE)! These two organisations are not affiliated. RP does foundational research on neglected causes. CE aims to create high-impact charities.
My worry is that many people might not even know that owning a pet snake is a possibility. Any publicity about this issue could make more people aware that they can own snakes, which could lead to increased sales of pet snakes. I donāt know if this concern is valid, itās based only on my intuitions, and your intuitions are as good as mine here. Everyone knows that dogs can be pets, so the situation is not analogous. Unfortunately, the impact of news stories on snake ownership canāt be evaluated because there is not enough data about snake ownership. There is only yearly data for the UK and it has a large margin of error. In other countries there is much less data.
I wouldnāt know how recommending alternative snakes could be done effectively. It may also be difficult to do without sending a message that itās ok to own pet snakes. And yes, I am similarly extremely uncertain about whether that would be an improvement.
One day Iād like to look into changing agricultural practices to protect field mice, it does seem to be an important topic. However, itās not in immediate RP plans.
Glad you liked the post :)
Edited my reply to reflect the correct organization, thanks!
ok, but I will leave my comment as it is because it seems that many people conflate RP and CE, and maybe some of them will see my comment :)
There is quite a bit of recent controversy about pitbulls, that seems like the right place to start.