It’s interesting to see these lists! It does seem like there are many examples here, and I wasn’t aware of many of them.
Many of the given examples relate to setbacks and restraints in one or two countries at a time. But my impression is that people don’t doubt that various policy decisions or other interruptions could slow AGI development in a particular country; it’s just that this might not substantially slow development overall (just handicap some actors relative to others).
So I think the harder and more useful next research step would be to do more detailed case studies of individual technologies at the international level to try to get a sense of whether restraint meaningfully delayed development at an international level?
It’s interesting to see these lists! It does seem like there are many examples here, and I wasn’t aware of many of them.
Many of the given examples relate to setbacks and restraints in one or two countries at a time. But my impression is that people don’t doubt that various policy decisions or other interruptions could slow AGI development in a particular country; it’s just that this might not substantially slow development overall (just handicap some actors relative to others).
So I think the harder and more useful next research step would be to do more detailed case studies of individual technologies at the international level to try to get a sense of whether restraint meaningfully delayed development at an international level?