Nice work on the Guesstimate model. I don’t think the limited or moderate countervalue scenarios are very likely. I saw study a long time ago that I believe was two people inflicting pain on each other thinking they were just getting tit for tat revenge, but actually there was escalation of something like a factor of three in each exchange. It seems like escalation is a very large factor in most wars. So I think full-scale countervalue is quite likely, even if it starts out as counterforce or limited countervalue.
Nice work on the Guesstimate model. I don’t think the limited or moderate countervalue scenarios are very likely. I saw study a long time ago that I believe was two people inflicting pain on each other thinking they were just getting tit for tat revenge, but actually there was escalation of something like a factor of three in each exchange. It seems like escalation is a very large factor in most wars. So I think full-scale countervalue is quite likely, even if it starts out as counterforce or limited countervalue.