Yeah, I only meant to share some data as it seemed relevant, not to take a personal stance. And I think your point on more nation states acquiring nuclear weapons after a first detonation is a really good one and one that is not captured by the Metaculus questions I referred to.
Just to be clear: I think avoiding a nuclear war is important and neglected (unfortunately I am less sure about tractability but it should still be pursued). Both the recent nuclear sabre rattling of Putin, the increase in Chinese stockpiles (along with increased US-China tensions) and the withdrawal of the MacArthur foundation from funding disarmament are terrible signs and make me worry about the future. I even applied to a job here at Stockholm-based SIPRI in part because of my worries both about great power conflict and large-scale nuclear wars.
Yeah, I only meant to share some data as it seemed relevant, not to take a personal stance. And I think your point on more nation states acquiring nuclear weapons after a first detonation is a really good one and one that is not captured by the Metaculus questions I referred to.
Just to be clear: I think avoiding a nuclear war is important and neglected (unfortunately I am less sure about tractability but it should still be pursued). Both the recent nuclear sabre rattling of Putin, the increase in Chinese stockpiles (along with increased US-China tensions) and the withdrawal of the MacArthur foundation from funding disarmament are terrible signs and make me worry about the future. I even applied to a job here at Stockholm-based SIPRI in part because of my worries both about great power conflict and large-scale nuclear wars.