I was going from this: “The DICE baseline emissions scenario results in 83 million cumulative excess deaths by 2100 in the central estimate. Seventy-four million of these deaths can be averted by pursuing the DICE-EMR optimal emissions path.” I didn’t get into deaths vs DALYs (excess deaths among those with less life left to live), chances of scenarios, etc, and gave ‘on the order of’ for slack.
“But I don’t see why we’re talking about scale. Are you defining neglectedness as a ratio of <people potentially killed in worst case>/<dollars spent>?”
Mean not worst case and not just death. That’s the shape of the most interesting form to me. You could say that that cash transfers in every 1000 person town in a country with a billion people (and a uniform cash transfer program) are a millionfold less impact and a million times more neglected than cash transfers to the country as a whole, cancelling out, but the semantics aren’t really going to be interesting to me.
I think it’s fairly clear that there is a vast difference between the work that those concerned with catastrophic AI safety as such have been doing vs random samples of Google staff, and that in relevant fields (e.g. RLHF,LLM red-teaming, or AI forecasting) they are quite noticeable as a share of global activity. You may disagree. I’ll leave the thread at that.
I’m happy to leave it there, but to clarify I’m not claiming ‘no difference in the type of work they do’, but rather ‘no a priori reason to write one group off as “not concerned with safety”’.
I was going from this: “The DICE baseline emissions scenario results in 83 million cumulative excess deaths by 2100 in the central estimate. Seventy-four million of these deaths can be averted by pursuing the DICE-EMR optimal emissions path.” I didn’t get into deaths vs DALYs (excess deaths among those with less life left to live), chances of scenarios, etc, and gave ‘on the order of’ for slack.
“But I don’t see why we’re talking about scale. Are you defining neglectedness as a ratio of <people potentially killed in worst case>/<dollars spent>?”
Mean not worst case and not just death. That’s the shape of the most interesting form to me. You could say that that cash transfers in every 1000 person town in a country with a billion people (and a uniform cash transfer program) are a millionfold less impact and a million times more neglected than cash transfers to the country as a whole, cancelling out, but the semantics aren’t really going to be interesting to me.
I think it’s fairly clear that there is a vast difference between the work that those concerned with catastrophic AI safety as such have been doing vs random samples of Google staff, and that in relevant fields (e.g. RLHF,LLM red-teaming, or AI forecasting) they are quite noticeable as a share of global activity. You may disagree. I’ll leave the thread at that.
I’m happy to leave it there, but to clarify I’m not claiming ‘no difference in the type of work they do’, but rather ‘no a priori reason to write one group off as “not concerned with safety”’.