No, 3% is “chance of success”. After adding a bunch of multipliers, it comes to about 0.6% reduction in existential risk over the next century, for $8B to $20B.
2 nitpicks that end up arguing in favor of your high-level point
2.7% (which you’re rounding up to 3%) is chance of having an effect, and 70% x 2.7% = 1.9% is chance of positive effect (‘success’ by your wording)
your Squiggle calc doesn’t include the CCM’s ‘intervention backfiring’ part of the calc
No, 3% is “chance of success”. After adding a bunch of multipliers, it comes to about 0.6% reduction in existential risk over the next century, for $8B to $20B.
2 nitpicks that end up arguing in favor of your high-level point
2.7% (which you’re rounding up to 3%) is chance of having an effect, and 70% x 2.7% = 1.9% is chance of positive effect (‘success’ by your wording)
your Squiggle calc doesn’t include the CCM’s ‘intervention backfiring’ part of the calc