So here are the mistakes pointed out in the comments:
EAF’s hiring round had a high value of information, which I didn’t incorporate, per Misha’s comment
“Why we have over-rated Cool Earth” was more impactful than I thought, per Khorton’s comment
I likely underestimated the posible negative impact of the 2017 donor lotery report, which was quite positive on ALLFED, per MichaelA’s comment.
I think this (a ~30% mistakes rate) is quite brutal, and still only a lower bound (because there might be other mistakes which commenters didn’t point out.) I’m pointing this out here because I want to reference this error rate in a forthcoming post.
So here are the mistakes pointed out in the comments:
EAF’s hiring round had a high value of information, which I didn’t incorporate, per Misha’s comment
“Why we have over-rated Cool Earth” was more impactful than I thought, per Khorton’s comment
I likely underestimated the posible negative impact of the 2017 donor lotery report, which was quite positive on ALLFED, per MichaelA’s comment.
I think this (a ~30% mistakes rate) is quite brutal, and still only a lower bound (because there might be other mistakes which commenters didn’t point out.) I’m pointing this out here because I want to reference this error rate in a forthcoming post.