Another weird thing is to see the 2017 Donor Lottery Grant having x5..10 higher impact than 2018 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison.
I see now, that is weird. Note that if I calculate the total impact of the 100k to $1M I think Larks moved, the impact of that would be 100mQ to 2Q (change the Shapley value fraction in the Guessstimate to 1), which is closer to the 500mQ to 4Q I estimated from the 2017 Donor Lottery. And the difference can be attributed to a) Investing in organizations which are starting up, b) the high cost of producing AI safety papers, coupled with cause neutrality, and c) further error.
I see now, that is weird. Note that if I calculate the total impact of the 100k to $1M I think Larks moved, the impact of that would be 100mQ to 2Q (change the Shapley value fraction in the Guessstimate to 1), which is closer to the 500mQ to 4Q I estimated from the 2017 Donor Lottery. And the difference can be attributed to a) Investing in organizations which are starting up, b) the high cost of producing AI safety papers, coupled with cause neutrality, and c) further error.