Re point 1: I agree that the likelihood and expected impact of transformative AI exist on a spectrum. I didn’t mean to imply certainty about timelines, but I chose not to focus on arguing for specific timelines in this post.
Regarding the specific points: they seem plausible but are mostly based on base rates and social dynamics. I think many people’s views, especially those working on AI, have shifted from being shaped primarily by abstract arguments to being informed by observable trends in AI capabilities and investments.
I’m not sure that the observable trends in current AI capabilities definitely point to an almost-certainty of TAI. I love using the latest LLMs, I find them amazing, and I do find it plausible that next-gen models, plus making them more agent-like, might be amazing (and scary). And I find it very, very plausible to imagine big productivity boosts in knowledge work. But the claim that this will almost-certainly lead to a rapid and complete economic/scientific transformation still feels at least a bit speculative, to me, I think...
Thanks for the thoughtful comment!
Re point 1: I agree that the likelihood and expected impact of transformative AI exist on a spectrum. I didn’t mean to imply certainty about timelines, but I chose not to focus on arguing for specific timelines in this post.
Regarding the specific points: they seem plausible but are mostly based on base rates and social dynamics. I think many people’s views, especially those working on AI, have shifted from being shaped primarily by abstract arguments to being informed by observable trends in AI capabilities and investments.
Cheers, and thanks for the thoughtful post! :)
I’m not sure that the observable trends in current AI capabilities definitely point to an almost-certainty of TAI. I love using the latest LLMs, I find them amazing, and I do find it plausible that next-gen models, plus making them more agent-like, might be amazing (and scary). And I find it very, very plausible to imagine big productivity boosts in knowledge work. But the claim that this will almost-certainly lead to a rapid and complete economic/scientific transformation still feels at least a bit speculative, to me, I think...