I think that your probabilities are too high, because you are not processing enough data, or processing the data you have enough. For example, the new sovereign state prior (3%) would assume something like all countries having the same chance of popping out a state, which seems to clearly not be the case.
I think that your probabilities are too high, because you are not processing enough data, or processing the data you have enough. For example, the new sovereign state prior (3%) would assume something like all countries having the same chance of popping out a state, which seems to clearly not be the case.
You might want to take a look at or contact the authors from the Rulers, Elections and Irregular Governance (REIGN) dataset/CoupCast, which has way more data behind it.