If I understand your post correctly, you are saying that by being recruited as fund manager for AWF, you will direct $186k to SWP, whereas if you are not recruited, the next candidate will allocate these funds to other interventions whose impact is comparatively negligible, so that the value of your work for 1 year in this position will be 186-0 = $186k.
Yes, that is practically it. In rigour, the 2nd best candidate would also direct funds to interventions as cost-effective as SWP. I assumed I would direct 186 k$ more than whatever they would.
What do you think?
@Mata’i Souchon, I have updated this paragraph. I agree more actors would be responsible for the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP (me, AWF, their donors, and the organisations) than to that linked to me donating more to such organisations (me, and the organisations). My counterfactual value, which was I estimated in my post, is the same in both cases, but my Shapley value, which is what matters, is larger in the latter. In both cases, all the actors I listed are necessary to produce impact, so I think I would be responsible for 25 % (= 1⁄4) of the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP, but 50 % (= 1⁄2) of the impact linked to me donating more to such organisations. So I believe I should have weighted the former 50 % (= 0.25/0.5) as heavily as I originally did in my post. I have now corrected for this by halving the impact of my direct work I originally estimated. The ratio between the expected value from turning down and accepting the offer from Anonymous Organisation went from 1.20 to 1.07.
Thanks to your comments, I went from a ratio of 1.67 to 1.07. My decision would have been the same based on this, but it is a significant update. Thanks for engaging!
@Mata’i Souchon, I have updated this paragraph. I agree more actors would be responsible for the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP (me, AWF, their donors, and the organisations) than to that linked to me donating more to such organisations (me, and the organisations). My counterfactual value, which was I estimated in my post, is the same in both cases, but my Shapley value, which is what matters, is larger in the latter.
I have reverted the changes regarding the Shapley value. Thinking more about it, I realised what matters is not the number of necessary actors, but whether their actions are sufficiently independent from my decision about the offer, which I think they are.
Thanks for clarifying, Matta!
Yes, that is practically it. In rigour, the 2nd best candidate would also direct funds to interventions as cost-effective as SWP. I assumed I would direct 186 k$ more than whatever they would.
@Mata’i Souchon, I have updated this paragraph. I agree more actors would be responsible for the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP (me, AWF, their donors, and the organisations) than to that linked to me donating more to such organisations (me, and the organisations). My counterfactual value, which was I estimated in my post, is the same in both cases, but my Shapley value, which is what matters, is larger in the latter. In both cases, all the actors I listed are necessary to produce impact, so I think I would be responsible for 25 % (= 1⁄4) of the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP, but 50 % (= 1⁄2) of the impact linked to me donating more to such organisations. So I believe I should have weighted the former 50 % (= 0.25/0.5) as heavily as I originally did in my post. I have now corrected for this by halving the impact of my direct work I originally estimated. The ratio between the expected value from turning down and accepting the offer from Anonymous Organisation went from 1.20 to 1.07.
Thanks to your comments, I went from a ratio of 1.67 to 1.07. My decision would have been the same based on this, but it is a significant update. Thanks for engaging!
I have reverted the changes regarding the Shapley value. Thinking more about it, I realised what matters is not the number of necessary actors, but whether their actions are sufficiently independent from my decision about the offer, which I think they are.