Well, I structured my comment by discussing the problem of double counting on the $930k amount and then talking about the impact of the position (20% of the $930k), but in fact it might have been clearer if I had proceeded the other way around (commenting directly on your figure of $186k of “value”).
If I understand your post correctly, you are saying that by being recruited as fund manager for AWF, you will direct $186k to SWP, whereas if you are not recruited, the next candidate will allocate these funds to other interventions whose impact is comparatively negligible, so that the value of your work for 1 year in this position will be 186-0 = $186k.
The point on which I am unsure is that by attributing all the funds moved to the value of your work in this role, I suspect there is double counting, because I fear that:
you would end up saying, “By working at AWF for a year, I have moved $186k towards much more effective interventions than before, so the direct impact of my work for animals has been $186k (without me, this money would not have been moved),”
and meanwhile, SWP would say, “This year, we spent an additional $186k on animals, so the direct impact of our work on animals has increased by $186k (without us, this money would have helped far fewer shrimps, if any at all),”
and furthermore, GWWC would say, “This year again, we found donors who enabled $186k to go to AWF and then to SWP, which cost us $6,200 for a value of $186k (without us, these donations would not have been made),”
a GWWC donor would say, “This year again, I donated $6,200 to GWWC, which allowed $186k to go to SWP (without me, these donations would not have been made),”
some AWF donors would say “This year, we collectively donated $186k to AWF on the GWWC site, and that money ended up in SWP’s account (without us, they wouldn’t have had that money)”.
This does not necessarily invalidate the conclusions of this section of your post (the ranking of the various positions in terms of direct impact of the work would be unchanged).
In fact, I would have had no objection to this section if you had avoided talking about “value” and only talked about “amounts moved to SWP”, instead of presenting these terms as equivalent.
Where it may become more debatable is when you sum these redirected amounts with the amounts of donations you make thanks to salaries that are higher than your living expenses, as if in both cases they were “values” that could be added together in the same calculation. Following this logic, $100 redirected to SWP because of your direct work + $100 that you yourself donate to SWP = $200 of value.
However, at this stage of my reflection, it seems to me that to avoid any double counting, we would need to break down the responsibilities of the various actors in the final impact for each of the two terms of the sum:
Let’s consider the $100 redirected to SWP. Using the assumptions from my previous comment regarding the distribution of responsibilities among the various actors in the production of the final value, we can attribute $60 of specific value (i.e. without double counting) to SWP, $30 of specific value to AWF donors and $10 of specific value to AWF (including $3 of value specifically produced by the fund manager and $7 of value specifically produced by other employees).
Now let’s consider the $100 that you donate directly to SWP, without an intermediary (I then assume 60% responsibility of SWP in the final impact and 40% responsibility of the donor in the final impact). Your donation produces $40 of value.
The overall value produced by your work in this position, specifically attributable to you, is therefore 3+40 = $43, which is very different from the sum 100+100 = $200.
If I understand your post correctly, you are saying that by being recruited as fund manager for AWF, you will direct $186k to SWP, whereas if you are not recruited, the next candidate will allocate these funds to other interventions whose impact is comparatively negligible, so that the value of your work for 1 year in this position will be 186-0 = $186k.
Yes, that is practically it. In rigour, the 2nd best candidate would also direct funds to interventions as cost-effective as SWP. I assumed I would direct 186 k$ more than whatever they would.
What do you think?
@Mata’i Souchon, I have updated this paragraph. I agree more actors would be responsible for the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP (me, AWF, their donors, and the organisations) than to that linked to me donating more to such organisations (me, and the organisations). My counterfactual value, which was I estimated in my post, is the same in both cases, but my Shapley value, which is what matters, is larger in the latter. In both cases, all the actors I listed are necessary to produce impact, so I think I would be responsible for 25 % (= 1⁄4) of the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP, but 50 % (= 1⁄2) of the impact linked to me donating more to such organisations. So I believe I should have weighted the former 50 % (= 0.25/0.5) as heavily as I originally did in my post. I have now corrected for this by halving the impact of my direct work I originally estimated. The ratio between the expected value from turning down and accepting the offer from Anonymous Organisation went from 1.20 to 1.07.
Thanks to your comments, I went from a ratio of 1.67 to 1.07. My decision would have been the same based on this, but it is a significant update. Thanks for engaging!
@Mata’i Souchon, I have updated this paragraph. I agree more actors would be responsible for the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP (me, AWF, their donors, and the organisations) than to that linked to me donating more to such organisations (me, and the organisations). My counterfactual value, which was I estimated in my post, is the same in both cases, but my Shapley value, which is what matters, is larger in the latter.
I have reverted the changes regarding the Shapley value. Thinking more about it, I realised what matters is not the number of necessary actors, but whether their actions are sufficiently independent from my decision about the offer, which I think they are.
Well, I structured my comment by discussing the problem of double counting on the $930k amount and then talking about the impact of the position (20% of the $930k), but in fact it might have been clearer if I had proceeded the other way around (commenting directly on your figure of $186k of “value”).
If I understand your post correctly, you are saying that by being recruited as fund manager for AWF, you will direct $186k to SWP, whereas if you are not recruited, the next candidate will allocate these funds to other interventions whose impact is comparatively negligible, so that the value of your work for 1 year in this position will be 186-0 = $186k.
The point on which I am unsure is that by attributing all the funds moved to the value of your work in this role, I suspect there is double counting, because I fear that:
you would end up saying, “By working at AWF for a year, I have moved $186k towards much more effective interventions than before, so the direct impact of my work for animals has been $186k (without me, this money would not have been moved),”
and meanwhile, SWP would say, “This year, we spent an additional $186k on animals, so the direct impact of our work on animals has increased by $186k (without us, this money would have helped far fewer shrimps, if any at all),”
and furthermore, GWWC would say, “This year again, we found donors who enabled $186k to go to AWF and then to SWP, which cost us $6,200 for a value of $186k (without us, these donations would not have been made),”
a GWWC donor would say, “This year again, I donated $6,200 to GWWC, which allowed $186k to go to SWP (without me, these donations would not have been made),”
some AWF donors would say “This year, we collectively donated $186k to AWF on the GWWC site, and that money ended up in SWP’s account (without us, they wouldn’t have had that money)”.
This does not necessarily invalidate the conclusions of this section of your post (the ranking of the various positions in terms of direct impact of the work would be unchanged).
In fact, I would have had no objection to this section if you had avoided talking about “value” and only talked about “amounts moved to SWP”, instead of presenting these terms as equivalent.
Where it may become more debatable is when you sum these redirected amounts with the amounts of donations you make thanks to salaries that are higher than your living expenses, as if in both cases they were “values” that could be added together in the same calculation. Following this logic, $100 redirected to SWP because of your direct work + $100 that you yourself donate to SWP = $200 of value.
However, at this stage of my reflection, it seems to me that to avoid any double counting, we would need to break down the responsibilities of the various actors in the final impact for each of the two terms of the sum:
Let’s consider the $100 redirected to SWP. Using the assumptions from my previous comment regarding the distribution of responsibilities among the various actors in the production of the final value, we can attribute $60 of specific value (i.e. without double counting) to SWP, $30 of specific value to AWF donors and $10 of specific value to AWF (including $3 of value specifically produced by the fund manager and $7 of value specifically produced by other employees).
Now let’s consider the $100 that you donate directly to SWP, without an intermediary (I then assume 60% responsibility of SWP in the final impact and 40% responsibility of the donor in the final impact). Your donation produces $40 of value.
The overall value produced by your work in this position, specifically attributable to you, is therefore 3+40 = $43, which is very different from the sum 100+100 = $200.
What do you think?
Thanks for clarifying, Matta!
Yes, that is practically it. In rigour, the 2nd best candidate would also direct funds to interventions as cost-effective as SWP. I assumed I would direct 186 k$ more than whatever they would.
@Mata’i Souchon, I have updated this paragraph. I agree more actors would be responsible for the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP (me, AWF, their donors, and the organisations) than to that linked to me donating more to such organisations (me, and the organisations). My counterfactual value, which was I estimated in my post, is the same in both cases, but my Shapley value, which is what matters, is larger in the latter. In both cases, all the actors I listed are necessary to produce impact, so I think I would be responsible for 25 % (= 1⁄4) of the impact linked to AWF granting more to organisations as cost-effective as SWP, but 50 % (= 1⁄2) of the impact linked to me donating more to such organisations. So I believe I should have weighted the former 50 % (= 0.25/0.5) as heavily as I originally did in my post. I have now corrected for this by halving the impact of my direct work I originally estimated. The ratio between the expected value from turning down and accepting the offer from Anonymous Organisation went from 1.20 to 1.07.
Thanks to your comments, I went from a ratio of 1.67 to 1.07. My decision would have been the same based on this, but it is a significant update. Thanks for engaging!
I have reverted the changes regarding the Shapley value. Thinking more about it, I realised what matters is not the number of necessary actors, but whether their actions are sufficiently independent from my decision about the offer, which I think they are.