Hmm, I guess I hadn’t read that post in full detail (or I did and forgot about the details), even though I was aware of it. I think the argument there that mortality will roughly match some time after transition is pretty solid (based on two datasets and expert opinion). I think there was still a question of whether or not the “short-term” increase in mortality outweighs the reduction in behavioural deprivation, especially since it wasn’t clear how long the transition period would be. This is a weaker claim than my original one, though, so I’ll retract my original claim.
FWIW, although this is completely different claim, bone fracture is only discussed in that post as a potential cause of increased mortality in cage-free systems, but not as a source of additional pain regardless of mortality that could mean cage-free is worse and would remain worse. The post was primarily focused on mortality and behavioural deprivation/opportunities. Fractures have since been weighted explicitly here (from https://welfarefootprint.org/research-projects/laying-hens/).
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/how-will-hen-welfare-be-impacted-transition-cage-free-housing
Hmm, I guess I hadn’t read that post in full detail (or I did and forgot about the details), even though I was aware of it. I think the argument there that mortality will roughly match some time after transition is pretty solid (based on two datasets and expert opinion). I think there was still a question of whether or not the “short-term” increase in mortality outweighs the reduction in behavioural deprivation, especially since it wasn’t clear how long the transition period would be. This is a weaker claim than my original one, though, so I’ll retract my original claim.
FWIW, although this is completely different claim, bone fracture is only discussed in that post as a potential cause of increased mortality in cage-free systems, but not as a source of additional pain regardless of mortality that could mean cage-free is worse and would remain worse. The post was primarily focused on mortality and behavioural deprivation/opportunities. Fractures have since been weighted explicitly here (from https://welfarefootprint.org/research-projects/laying-hens/).