I think cost-effectiveness analyses may generally be under-evaluating interventions due to the possibility of optimizing some parameters of the intervention. Such optimization could be accounted for in prospective quantitative CEAs by running some optimization algorithm, but I’m not sure how useful/accurate the result of that would be.
Sure! Looking into GiveWell’s main CEA, and their analysis of AMF (link), the location granularity is by country. However, AMF prioritizes their distribution location based on malaria prevalence rates and operational partners, so the results might be much better than the country’s average.
I think cost-effectiveness analyses may generally be under-evaluating interventions due to the possibility of optimizing some parameters of the intervention. Such optimization could be accounted for in prospective quantitative CEAs by running some optimization algorithm, but I’m not sure how useful/accurate the result of that would be.
Could you give an example for an intervention you think might have been undervalued?
Sure! Looking into GiveWell’s main CEA, and their analysis of AMF (link), the location granularity is by country. However, AMF prioritizes their distribution location based on malaria prevalence rates and operational partners, so the results might be much better than the country’s average.