By default, you shouldn’t have a prior that bio risks is 100x more tractable than AI though. Some (important) people think that the EA community had a net negative impact on biorisks because of infohazards for instance.
Also, I’ll argue below that timelines matter for ITN and I’m pretty confident the risk/year is very different for the two risks (which favors AI in my model).
I would be interested in your uncertainties with all of this. If we are basing our ITN analysis on priors, given the limitations and biases of our priors, I would again be highly uncertain, once more leaning away from the certainty that you present in this post
Basically, as I said in my post I’m fairly confident about most things except the MVP (minimum viable population) where I almost completely defer to Luisa Rodriguez. Likewise, for the likelihood of irrecoverable collapse, my prior is that’s the likelihood is very low for the reasons I gave above but given that I haven’t explored that much the inside view arguments in favor of it, I could quickly update upward and I think that it would the best way for me to update positively on biorisks actually posing an X-risk in the next 30 years.
My view on the 95% is pretty robust to external perturbations though because my beliefs favor short timelines (<2030). So I think you’d also need to change my mind on how easy it is to make a virus by 2030 that kills >90% of the people, spreads so fast/ or is stealthy so that almost everyone gets infected.
By default, you shouldn’t have a prior that bio risks is 100x more tractable than AI though. Some (important) people think that the EA community had a net negative impact on biorisks because of infohazards for instance.
Also, I’ll argue below that timelines matter for ITN and I’m pretty confident the risk/year is very different for the two risks (which favors AI in my model).
I would be interested in your uncertainties with all of this. If we are basing our ITN analysis on priors, given the limitations and biases of our priors, I would again be highly uncertain, once more leaning away from the certainty that you present in this post
Basically, as I said in my post I’m fairly confident about most things except the MVP (minimum viable population) where I almost completely defer to Luisa Rodriguez.
Likewise, for the likelihood of irrecoverable collapse, my prior is that’s the likelihood is very low for the reasons I gave above but given that I haven’t explored that much the inside view arguments in favor of it, I could quickly update upward and I think that it would the best way for me to update positively on biorisks actually posing an X-risk in the next 30 years.
My view on the 95% is pretty robust to external perturbations though because my beliefs favor short timelines (<2030). So I think you’d also need to change my mind on how easy it is to make a virus by 2030 that kills >90% of the people, spreads so fast/ or is stealthy so that almost everyone gets infected.