I actually think our big crux here is the amount of uncertainty. Each of the points I raise and each new assumption you are putting in should raise you uncertainty. Given you claim 95% ofongtermists should work on AI, high uncertainties fo not seem to weigh in the favour of your argument.
Note I am not saying and haven’t that either AI isn’t the most important X-Risk or that we shouldn’t work on it. Just arguing against the certainty from your post
I think you make a good point if we were close in terms but what matters primarily is the EV and I expect this to dominate uncertainty here. I didn’t do the computations but I feel like if u have something which is OOMs more important than others, even with very large bars of uncertainty you’d probably put >19/20 of your resources on the highest EV thing. In the same way we don’t give to another less cost-effective org to hedge against AMF even though they might have some tail chances of having a very significant positive impact on society because the bars of estimate are very large.
I actually think our big crux here is the amount of uncertainty. Each of the points I raise and each new assumption you are putting in should raise you uncertainty. Given you claim 95% ofongtermists should work on AI, high uncertainties fo not seem to weigh in the favour of your argument. Note I am not saying and haven’t that either AI isn’t the most important X-Risk or that we shouldn’t work on it. Just arguing against the certainty from your post
I think you make a good point if we were close in terms but what matters primarily is the EV and I expect this to dominate uncertainty here.
I didn’t do the computations but I feel like if u have something which is OOMs more important than others, even with very large bars of uncertainty you’d probably put >19/20 of your resources on the highest EV thing.
In the same way we don’t give to another less cost-effective org to hedge against AMF even though they might have some tail chances of having a very significant positive impact on society because the bars of estimate are very large.