(Edited at 19:35 UTC-5 as I misunderstood how the voting system works)
My top 10 right now look something like:
1. The Midas Project 2. EA Animal Welfare Fund 3. Rethink Priorities 4. MATS Research 5. Shrimp Welfare Project 6. Apart Research 7. Legal Impact for Chickens 8. PauseAI 9. Wild Animal Initiative 10. High Impact Professionals
I ranked my organization, The Midas Project, first on my ballot. I don’t think we have a stronger track record than many of the organizations in this election (and I expect the winners will be a few familiar top contenders like Rethink Priorities, who certainly deserve to be there), but I do think the election will undervalue our project due to general information asymmetries and most of our value being speculative/heavy-tailed. This seems in line with the tactical voting suggestion, but it does feel a bit icky/full of hubris.
Also, in making this list, I realized that I favored large orgs whose work I’m familiar with, and most skipped over small orgs who I know little about (including ones that made posts for marginal funding week that I just haven’t read). This was a funny feeling because (as mentioned) I run a small org that I expect many people don’t know about and will skip over.
One way people can counteract this would be, in making your selection, choose 1-2 orgs you’ve never heard of at random, do a deep dive on them, and place them somewhere in your rankings (even at the bottom if you aren’t excited about them). With enough people doing this, there should be enough coverage of small orgs for the results of the election to be a bit more informative, at least in terms of how smaller orgs compare to each other.
One’s second, third, etc. choices would only come into play when/if their first choice is eliminated by the IRV system. Although there could be some circumstances in which voting solely for one’s #1 choice could be tactically wise, I believe they are rather narrow and would only be knowable in the last day or two.
Is there any scenario where only voting for your first choice would be wise? I don’t think there is any downside to listing a second choice, assuming that you do actually prefer that second choice over any of the other options should your first choice be eliminated.
There may not be, I don’t feel I’ve exhausted the list of possibilities so hedged my comment a bit.
I can envision worlds in which supporters of one’s second choice would have an incentive to knock your first choice out—so the vote would flow to their supported charity instead. I suppose those people could write a comment critical of your first choice to try to get it eliminated before theirs? That seems awfully speculative, only seems a plausible attack if one knows most/all of the voting orders for people who ranked the org first. Especially since only the top three are in the money and changing the order of elimination ordinarily won’t change the top three.
(Edited at 19:35 UTC-5 as I misunderstood how the voting system works)
My top 10 right now look something like:
1. The Midas Project
2. EA Animal Welfare Fund
3. Rethink Priorities
4. MATS Research
5. Shrimp Welfare Project
6. Apart Research
7. Legal Impact for Chickens
8. PauseAI
9. Wild Animal Initiative
10. High Impact Professionals
I ranked my organization, The Midas Project, first on my ballot. I don’t think we have a stronger track record than many of the organizations in this election (and I expect the winners will be a few familiar top contenders like Rethink Priorities, who certainly deserve to be there), but I do think the election will undervalue our project due to general information asymmetries and most of our value being speculative/heavy-tailed. This seems in line with the tactical voting suggestion, but it does feel a bit icky/full of hubris.
Also, in making this list, I realized that I favored large orgs whose work I’m familiar with, and most skipped over small orgs who I know little about (including ones that made posts for marginal funding week that I just haven’t read). This was a funny feeling because (as mentioned) I run a small org that I expect many people don’t know about and will skip over.
One way people can counteract this would be, in making your selection, choose 1-2 orgs you’ve never heard of at random, do a deep dive on them, and place them somewhere in your rankings (even at the bottom if you aren’t excited about them). With enough people doing this, there should be enough coverage of small orgs for the results of the election to be a bit more informative, at least in terms of how smaller orgs compare to each other.
One’s second, third, etc. choices would only come into play when/if their first choice is eliminated by the IRV system. Although there could be some circumstances in which voting solely for one’s #1 choice could be tactically wise, I believe they are rather narrow and would only be knowable in the last day or two.
Is there any scenario where only voting for your first choice would be wise? I don’t think there is any downside to listing a second choice, assuming that you do actually prefer that second choice over any of the other options should your first choice be eliminated.
There may not be, I don’t feel I’ve exhausted the list of possibilities so hedged my comment a bit.
I can envision worlds in which supporters of one’s second choice would have an incentive to knock your first choice out—so the vote would flow to their supported charity instead. I suppose those people could write a comment critical of your first choice to try to get it eliminated before theirs? That seems awfully speculative, only seems a plausible attack if one knows most/all of the voting orders for people who ranked the org first. Especially since only the top three are in the money and changing the order of elimination ordinarily won’t change the top three.
Ooh interesting. Thanks for pointing this out, I’m revising my ballot now.