Much of this is a part of what both some of the EA forecasting community, and what we at [QURI](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/), are working on.
I think the full thing is much more work than you think it is. I suggest trying to take one subpart of this problem and doing it very well, instead of taking the entire thing on at once.
I’ve been thinking about which sub-parts to tackle, but I think that the project just isn’t very valuable until it has all three of:
A Prediction / estimation aggregation tool
Up-to-date causal models (using a simplified probabilistic programming language)
Very good UX, needed for adoption.
It’s a lot of work, yes, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. I’m not sure there’s a better way to split it up and still have it be valuable. I think the MVP for this project is a pretty high bar.
Ways to split it up:
Do the probabilistic programming language first. This isn’t really valuable, it’s a research project that no one will use.
Do the prediction aggregation part first. This is metaculus.
Do the knowledge graph part first. This is maybe a good start—it’s a wiki with better UX? I’m sure someone is scoping this out / doing it.
These things empower each other.
It’s hard, but nevertheless I’d estimate definitely no more than 3 person-years of effort for the following things:
A snappy, good-looking prediction/estimation (web) interface.
A causal model editor with a graph view.
A backend that can update the distributions with monte-carlo simulations.
Rich-text comments and posts attached to models, bets and “markets” (still need a better name than “markets”)
Happy to see more discussion on these topics.
Much of this is a part of what both some of the EA forecasting community, and what we at [QURI](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/), are working on.
I think the full thing is much more work than you think it is. I suggest trying to take one subpart of this problem and doing it very well, instead of taking the entire thing on at once.
I’ve been thinking about which sub-parts to tackle, but I think that the project just isn’t very valuable until it has all three of:
A Prediction / estimation aggregation tool
Up-to-date causal models (using a simplified probabilistic programming language)
Very good UX, needed for adoption.
It’s a lot of work, yes, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. I’m not sure there’s a better way to split it up and still have it be valuable. I think the MVP for this project is a pretty high bar.
Ways to split it up:
Do the probabilistic programming language first. This isn’t really valuable, it’s a research project that no one will use.
Do the prediction aggregation part first. This is metaculus.
Do the knowledge graph part first. This is maybe a good start—it’s a wiki with better UX? I’m sure someone is scoping this out / doing it.
These things empower each other.
It’s hard, but nevertheless I’d estimate definitely no more than 3 person-years of effort for the following things:
A snappy, good-looking prediction/estimation (web) interface.
A causal model editor with a graph view.
A backend that can update the distributions with monte-carlo simulations.
Rich-text comments and posts attached to models, bets and “markets” (still need a better name than “markets”)
I-frames for people to embed the UI elsewhere.
What do you estimate?
I’d love to make an aggregate estimate for how much work this project would take