Max—thanks for this analysis, alarming though it is.
Apart from Putin’s potential irrationality, I’m also concerned about Biden’s state of mind.
Many reasonable people have observed that there seems to have been a gradual decline in Biden’s cognitive functioning, verbal fluency, memory retrieval, etc. over the last several years.
This raises the question: who would actually be in charge of the US strategic nuclear forces, and who is actually setting policy about our potential nuclear response? No doubt there is an ‘inner circle’ of advisors such as Biden’s chief of staff, national security advisor, joint chiefs, Jill Biden, etc., but it’s unclear which people actually hold the most influence, what their risk-aversion levels are, how well they understand the implications of thermonuclear war, how well they understand the relevant game theory, etc. (This isn’t a partisan issue; I can imagine people being equally concerned about Trump’s decision-making if this had unfolded a few years ago.)
In other words, I worry that there’s a power vacuum at the highest levels of US decision-making, and this makes me a lot more worried that I would be otherwise.
PS people who disagreed with my comment—do you disagree that Biden has suffered some cognitive decline, or disagree that there’s a power vacuum, or disagree that his advisors have relatively unknown levels of risk aversion, understanding of game theory and nuclear war costs, etc.?
I don’t know enough to disagree or agree (and didn’t vote on your comment) but my vague sense is that Biden’s inner circle is about as competent and value-aligned (when it comes to nuclear risk) as you can hope for in a White House administration today. I base this only on what I’ve seen them do so far, but leave this comment here for others to agree/disagree vote on.
I upvoted this, but it’s not like I have a clear idea of what Biden would do, cognitive decline or otherwise. I don’t necessarily expect people from the same political camp as me to also have the same risk tolerance or priorities in general. And I suppose there’s always power in that hidden inner circle.
Max—thanks for this analysis, alarming though it is.
Apart from Putin’s potential irrationality, I’m also concerned about Biden’s state of mind.
Many reasonable people have observed that there seems to have been a gradual decline in Biden’s cognitive functioning, verbal fluency, memory retrieval, etc. over the last several years.
This raises the question: who would actually be in charge of the US strategic nuclear forces, and who is actually setting policy about our potential nuclear response? No doubt there is an ‘inner circle’ of advisors such as Biden’s chief of staff, national security advisor, joint chiefs, Jill Biden, etc., but it’s unclear which people actually hold the most influence, what their risk-aversion levels are, how well they understand the implications of thermonuclear war, how well they understand the relevant game theory, etc. (This isn’t a partisan issue; I can imagine people being equally concerned about Trump’s decision-making if this had unfolded a few years ago.)
In other words, I worry that there’s a power vacuum at the highest levels of US decision-making, and this makes me a lot more worried that I would be otherwise.
The US’s stance so far reassures me. They have made clear they don’t want nuclear war and understood that a No-Fly-Zone was a no-go.
That’s two positive decisions in my book
From a nuclear risk perspective I am glad that whoever is making decisions is making them well.
PS people who disagreed with my comment—do you disagree that Biden has suffered some cognitive decline, or disagree that there’s a power vacuum, or disagree that his advisors have relatively unknown levels of risk aversion, understanding of game theory and nuclear war costs, etc.?
Genuinely curious.
I don’t know enough to disagree or agree (and didn’t vote on your comment) but my vague sense is that Biden’s inner circle is about as competent and value-aligned (when it comes to nuclear risk) as you can hope for in a White House administration today. I base this only on what I’ve seen them do so far, but leave this comment here for others to agree/disagree vote on.
I upvoted this, but it’s not like I have a clear idea of what Biden would do, cognitive decline or otherwise. I don’t necessarily expect people from the same political camp as me to also have the same risk tolerance or priorities in general. And I suppose there’s always power in that hidden inner circle.