I haven’t read this post (and that’s okay—it has a big headline that I think will scare people, so I’m responding to that)
Does Max have a forecasting track record I can see anywhere?
Again, looking at the headline only, think this is 10 − 100x too pessimistic. I don’t tend to respect the calibration of the median very clever person, so I don’t intend to update a lot on the headline alone.
I imagine I’ll read the full article later.
I think it’s very easy to defer to “big names” but here I don’t see a lot of reason to unless they have a good track record or specific expertise. Again, I could be wrong, but I think Max is a renown physicist without a forecasting track record, so I will treat this as I would any other forum poster.
This isn’t meant as an insult to Max, I just think this article would be easy to overrate.
I haven’t read this post (and that’s okay—it has a big headline that I think will scare people, so I’m responding to that)
Does Max have a forecasting track record I can see anywhere?
Again, looking at the headline only, think this is 10 − 100x too pessimistic. I don’t tend to respect the calibration of the median very clever person, so I don’t intend to update a lot on the headline alone.
I imagine I’ll read the full article later.
I think it’s very easy to defer to “big names” but here I don’t see a lot of reason to unless they have a good track record or specific expertise. Again, I could be wrong, but I think Max is a renown physicist without a forecasting track record, so I will treat this as I would any other forum poster.
This isn’t meant as an insult to Max, I just think this article would be easy to overrate.
I’m happy to bet at 20% that Ukraine will get Nuked. Profit donated to charity. Happy to bet from counterfactual non-donations up to $200.