It’s also much more pessimistic than are prediction markets – for instance, Metaculus puts the odds of a nuclear detonation in Ukraine by 2023 at 7%, and a Russian nuclear detonation in the US this year at ≤ 1%.
It’s also much more pessimistic than are prediction markets – for instance, Metaculus puts the odds of a nuclear detonation in Ukraine by 2023 at 7%, and a Russian nuclear detonation in the US this year at ≤ 1%.