There’s definitely strong reason to be sceptical of the assumption of Recovery. Stan Pinsent did a good piece a few years reviewing the evidence on why we shouldn’t expect a population bounceback after catastrophe (and how a world that does bounceback would have worse values), with both considerations making x-risk mitigation less valuable than it otherwise would have been.
There’s definitely strong reason to be sceptical of the assumption of Recovery. Stan Pinsent did a good piece a few years reviewing the evidence on why we shouldn’t expect a population bounceback after catastrophe (and how a world that does bounceback would have worse values), with both considerations making x-risk mitigation less valuable than it otherwise would have been.
https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​djM84hy77DtsyJnDD/​​population-after-a-catastrophe