Kudos for seriously recommending a novel-to-EA-for-me intervention! It seems there have been a few relatively novel ideas posted recently, it’s been quite nice. I think the base rate for these sorts of interventions making it through all the next filters (much more EA consideration, actual implementation) is quite low, and I don’t have particular reason to currently believe this is much different than other recommendations. That said, even if there were a 0.1% chance this were cost-effective, the EV of introducing it could be quite high.
As an aside, if we are getting many novel ideas but there are not enough people to fund/implement them, that’s good evidence that we should be worrying more about movement growth (& less about cultivating a small cadre of uber-rational people).
The next logical step is to evaluate the novel ideas, though, where a “cadre of uber-rational people” would be quite useful IMHO. In particular, a small group of very good evaluators seems much better than a large group of less epistemically rational evaluators who could be collectively swayed by bad reasoning.
Kudos for seriously recommending a novel-to-EA-for-me intervention! It seems there have been a few relatively novel ideas posted recently, it’s been quite nice. I think the base rate for these sorts of interventions making it through all the next filters (much more EA consideration, actual implementation) is quite low, and I don’t have particular reason to currently believe this is much different than other recommendations. That said, even if there were a 0.1% chance this were cost-effective, the EV of introducing it could be quite high.
As an aside, if we are getting many novel ideas but there are not enough people to fund/implement them, that’s good evidence that we should be worrying more about movement growth (& less about cultivating a small cadre of uber-rational people).
The next logical step is to evaluate the novel ideas, though, where a “cadre of uber-rational people” would be quite useful IMHO. In particular, a small group of very good evaluators seems much better than a large group of less epistemically rational evaluators who could be collectively swayed by bad reasoning.