sometimes it can be prudential to believe in something you think is likely false
But if it were belief that mattered I’m not sure how I could achieve this. If I “think it is likely false” in what sense do I, or can I, “believe it”?
Maybe I could take a drug and hypnotise myself or something, but then someone might reasonably argue “that’s not real belief, it’s cheating, so it doesn’t count”
I agree that there are difficulties here. However I do think there is a degree of flexibility in choosing beliefs, at both the conscious and subconscious levels, and people often end up believing things that are helpful to believe in some way even if not necessarily completely true. Intentionally trying to believe something you think is likely false and you have no other reason to believe in is probably going to be very hard, but you may easily end up believing weak arguments if other incentives line up in favor of the belief.
But if it were belief that mattered I’m not sure how I could achieve this. If I “think it is likely false” in what sense do I, or can I, “believe it”?
Maybe I could take a drug and hypnotise myself or something, but then someone might reasonably argue “that’s not real belief, it’s cheating, so it doesn’t count”
I agree that there are difficulties here. However I do think there is a degree of flexibility in choosing beliefs, at both the conscious and subconscious levels, and people often end up believing things that are helpful to believe in some way even if not necessarily completely true. Intentionally trying to believe something you think is likely false and you have no other reason to believe in is probably going to be very hard, but you may easily end up believing weak arguments if other incentives line up in favor of the belief.