I didn’t have an exact time frame in mind, but basically short-medium timelines. If it turns out we’re 30 years away from ASI, then I can see a good argument that the probability of extinction is less than 25%.
Conditional on ASI being developed using anything resembling current techniques, I’d guess there’s an 80% chance of human extinction. On longer timelines, there’s a better chance that we work out better alignment techniques.
Hi Michael.
Lesss than 25 % from now until when?
I didn’t have an exact time frame in mind, but basically short-medium timelines. If it turns out we’re 30 years away from ASI, then I can see a good argument that the probability of extinction is less than 25%.
What is your probability of human extinction in the 10 years following the achievement of artificial superintelligence (ASI) as defined by AI Futures?
Conditional on ASI being developed using anything resembling current techniques, I’d guess there’s an 80% chance of human extinction. On longer timelines, there’s a better chance that we work out better alignment techniques.