(I write this comment along with applying the tag because I think this Wiki page is unusually in-depth and worth reading, that it’s very directly relevant to the post, and that more EAs should see it.[1])
The latter point reflects my (moderate) agreement with the post’s opening claim. I expect I perceive EAs as being (somewhat) overconfident about different things to what this post’s author has in mind, however.
See also: “Model uncertainty” (EA Wiki, n.d.).
(I write this comment along with applying the tag because I think this Wiki page is unusually in-depth and worth reading, that it’s very directly relevant to the post, and that more EAs should see it.[1])
The latter point reflects my (moderate) agreement with the post’s opening claim. I expect I perceive EAs as being (somewhat) overconfident about different things to what this post’s author has in mind, however.