Do you have a good account for when counting arguments do and do not work? My impression is they often do work in everyday life, or at least can provide a good prior to be updated away from. Like if I’m wondering who I will meet first when I go into school, a counting argument correctly predicts that any single specific person is quite unlikely. Is the idea that humans are typically good at ontology dividing, such that each of the options are roughly equivalent, but this intuition doesn’t work well for SGD?
Thanks for writing this up and sharing it.
Do you have a good account for when counting arguments do and do not work? My impression is they often do work in everyday life, or at least can provide a good prior to be updated away from. Like if I’m wondering who I will meet first when I go into school, a counting argument correctly predicts that any single specific person is quite unlikely. Is the idea that humans are typically good at ontology dividing, such that each of the options are roughly equivalent, but this intuition doesn’t work well for SGD?