AI estimates that global knowledge work is ~$35T/​yr and that the value of AI is ~6x the revenue (though that could change). That would imply we would only need ~$6T/​yr AI revenue to substitute for all knowledge work. Now it is true that AI would be affecting the capital side of gross world product (GWP) (~$60T/​yr), and that the GWP would grow by then. But there is the time delay of diffusion, indicating that the impact of the AI at the time would be much larger eventually. So I think even $1-3T/​yr revenue with strong growth would be fairly strong evidence for AGI/​TAI.
AI estimates that global knowledge work is ~$35T/​yr and that the value of AI is ~6x the revenue (though that could change). That would imply we would only need ~$6T/​yr AI revenue to substitute for all knowledge work. Now it is true that AI would be affecting the capital side of gross world product (GWP) (~$60T/​yr), and that the GWP would grow by then. But there is the time delay of diffusion, indicating that the impact of the AI at the time would be much larger eventually. So I think even $1-3T/​yr revenue with strong growth would be fairly strong evidence for AGI/​TAI.