I think the discussion of hits-based giving is a bit beside the point. Many of the criticisms in the OP (“original post”) would speak against the grant even under hits-based giving. The only part where I think “hits-based giving” could be a satisfactory response (if everything else looks promising) is on the issue of prior expertise. If everything else looks promising, then it shouldn’t be a dealbreaker if someone lacks prior experience.
As I understand it, hits-based giving still means you have to be able to point to some specific reasons why the grant could turn out to be very impactful. And I understood the OP to be expressing something like, “I can’t find any specific reasons to expect this grant to be very impactful, except for its focus area – but there are other projects in the same space, so I wonder why this one was chosen.”
Agreed, that a hits-based approach doesn’t mean throwing money at everything. On the other hand, “lack of prior expertise” seems (at least in my books) to be the second strongest critique after the alleged misrepresentation.
So, while I conceded it doesn’t really address the strongest argument against this grant, I don’t see addressing the second strongest argument against the grant as being beside the point.
I agree with the points you have raised about subjectivity and my own personal views. And included the footnote about that collection of dot points being my very subjective read of how things developed. While I have tried my best to be attentive in my presentation of my read of the grant, some of it is just my analysis and it is is hard to present it without that color. I think it is legitimate that my subjectivity should influence your perception of my perspective and how seriously you think my inquiry should be taken.
I do think that there is enough objective detail given in my post for it to stand up to scrutiny, in particular the idea that Open Phil could have provided more detail on the grant to clarify and remove some of the concerns I have raised. I am not saying in any way that I have all the answers to the questions raised by the grant profile.
I think the discussion of hits-based giving is a bit beside the point. Many of the criticisms in the OP (“original post”) would speak against the grant even under hits-based giving. The only part where I think “hits-based giving” could be a satisfactory response (if everything else looks promising) is on the issue of prior expertise. If everything else looks promising, then it shouldn’t be a dealbreaker if someone lacks prior experience.
As I understand it, hits-based giving still means you have to be able to point to some specific reasons why the grant could turn out to be very impactful. And I understood the OP to be expressing something like, “I can’t find any specific reasons to expect this grant to be very impactful, except for its focus area – but there are other projects in the same space, so I wonder why this one was chosen.”
Agreed, that a hits-based approach doesn’t mean throwing money at everything. On the other hand, “lack of prior expertise” seems (at least in my books) to be the second strongest critique after the alleged misrepresentation.
So, while I conceded it doesn’t really address the strongest argument against this grant, I don’t see addressing the second strongest argument against the grant as being beside the point.
Hi Chris,
I agree with the points you have raised about subjectivity and my own personal views. And included the footnote about that collection of dot points being my very subjective read of how things developed. While I have tried my best to be attentive in my presentation of my read of the grant, some of it is just my analysis and it is is hard to present it without that color. I think it is legitimate that my subjectivity should influence your perception of my perspective and how seriously you think my inquiry should be taken.
I do think that there is enough objective detail given in my post for it to stand up to scrutiny, in particular the idea that Open Phil could have provided more detail on the grant to clarify and remove some of the concerns I have raised. I am not saying in any way that I have all the answers to the questions raised by the grant profile.