I am also skeptical of small percentages but more so because I think that the kinds of probability estimates that are close to 0 or 1 tend to be a lot more uncertain (perhaps because they’re based on rare or unprecedented events that have only been observed a few times).
I’m no statistician, but I’m not sure that we can say that small percentages tend to be exaggerated though… For one, I recall reading in Superforecasters that there’s evidence that people tend to underestimate the likelihood of rare events and overestimate the likelihood of common ones in forecasting exercises, so that’s an piece of evidence pointing towards small probabilities generally being too low rather than too high. Secondly, a low probability can equally be framed as a high probability of that event not happening. So in short—I agree that probability estimates that are close to 0 or 1 tend to be less certain, but not that probability estimates close to 0 tend to be overestimates any more than underestimates
I am also skeptical of small percentages but more so because I think that the kinds of probability estimates that are close to 0 or 1 tend to be a lot more uncertain (perhaps because they’re based on rare or unprecedented events that have only been observed a few times).
I’m no statistician, but I’m not sure that we can say that small percentages tend to be exaggerated though… For one, I recall reading in Superforecasters that there’s evidence that people tend to underestimate the likelihood of rare events and overestimate the likelihood of common ones in forecasting exercises, so that’s an piece of evidence pointing towards small probabilities generally being too low rather than too high. Secondly, a low probability can equally be framed as a high probability of that event not happening. So in short—I agree that probability estimates that are close to 0 or 1 tend to be less certain, but not that probability estimates close to 0 tend to be overestimates any more than underestimates