I agree with Hugh White’s 80k podcast. Unfortunately, Taiwan doesn’t stand much of a chance.
China’s best option is to declare a complete blockade/seige on Taiwan: no ship or aircraft allowed to reach Taiwan, not even food, with the goal of starving Taiwan into submission. If they do this before Trump leaves office, the cost-benefit analysis for Trump is so badly against going to war with China, that the US seems unlikely to go to war, and Taiwan would have no choice but to fold.
China would still have to deal with massive sanctions, and maybe even a US blockade of ships going to China through the Straight of Malacca, but Xi seems very determined and he can credibly threaten nuclear strikes on US cities.
(China would not get to keep TSMC’s chip fabs, they would be electronically destroyed as mentioned in the podcast.)
I agree with Hugh White’s 80k podcast. Unfortunately, Taiwan doesn’t stand much of a chance.
China’s best option is to declare a complete blockade/seige on Taiwan: no ship or aircraft allowed to reach Taiwan, not even food, with the goal of starving Taiwan into submission. If they do this before Trump leaves office, the cost-benefit analysis for Trump is so badly against going to war with China, that the US seems unlikely to go to war, and Taiwan would have no choice but to fold.
China would still have to deal with massive sanctions, and maybe even a US blockade of ships going to China through the Straight of Malacca, but Xi seems very determined and he can credibly threaten nuclear strikes on US cities.
(China would not get to keep TSMC’s chip fabs, they would be electronically destroyed as mentioned in the podcast.)