You discuss how difficult it would be for China to mount a land invasion of Taiwan, what’s your take on the likelihood/impact of a blockade instead? In the recent 80,000 Hours podcast with Hugh White, he predicted the “smartest” (if still grim) outcome is that China blockades Taiwan, the US sabotages Taiwan’s frontier chip fabs, and then the US steps back in order to avoid a larger conflict. Does this seem plausible or do you disagree?
I think the likelihood of a blockade is lower than the metaculus community, but this is a low volume question.
I disagree with Hugh White. This is for a couple weak reasons.
Many of the experts I trust seem to think this is a less likely scenario. I don’t know Hugh White well, but he came off a bit more “talking head” than calibrated analyst (or hedgehog than fox) to me (I’ll probably try and explain this in another comment).
My model of Xi / the PRC is that they want to minimize the time they’re exposed to potential diplomatic pushback. I guess that fait accompli = good, with the example of the Russian occupation of Crimea as ideal. Act before anyone can really get angry. A blockade seems like something they may want to threaten but I doubt they want to engage in.
It would potentially take a really long time to squeeze Taiwan (6 months to 2 years?). All this time could potentially galvanize global support for Taiwan, and consolidate anti-PRC / resistance sentiment within the country. It’s hard to justify internationally that you are trying to starve a whole country. It’s probably harder to justify than what I expect the PRC would prefer which is to actually do what Russia planned on doing—a quick 3 day operation where they take out military sites and the head of government and say “we had information Taiwan was about to declare independence. We have taken out the separatists, and protected the unity of the Chinese people.”
During this time it wouldn’t be too hard for Taiwan to ensure their fabs are destroyed if the PRC invades and to smuggle out key TSMC staff to Japan / USA in return for USA airlifts or something.
Indeed, I’m pretty sure blockades are considered an act of war under international law. If so, this would potentially allow Taiwan / the USA to attempt to break the blockade at a time of their choosing with justification. So I think a blockade could potentially leave the Chinese navy very vulnerable.
Blockades don’t have a strong track record of forcing capitulation. See Israel and Gaza, USA and Cuba, or USSR and Berlin.
If they fail then the PRC has lost their opportunity for a surprise attack and a good amount of credibility.
I strongly doubt the USA would sabotage Taiwan fabs. I mean, I think if anything Taiwan would do this themselves (but only if a Chinese invasion was inevitable). Sure the USA, may want to make sure Taiwan has these plans, but I don’t think they’d unilaterally sabotage the fabs. Is there any precedent for anything like this? We didn’t even destroy a fraction our massive amounts of valuable US hardware from getting into the hands of the Taliban—granted those were tactical rather than strategic assets. Maybe I’d update this if it turns out the USA was behind Nordstream 2 -- I thought that turned out to be Ukraine though.
But I’d welcome more forecasts and breakdowns of these scenarios!
I agree with Hugh White’s 80k podcast. Unfortunately, Taiwan doesn’t stand much of a chance.
China’s best option is to declare a complete blockade/seige on Taiwan: no ship or aircraft allowed to reach Taiwan, not even food, with the goal of starving Taiwan into submission. If they do this before Trump leaves office, the cost-benefit analysis for Trump is so badly against going to war with China, that the US seems unlikely to go to war, and Taiwan would have no choice but to fold.
China would still have to deal with massive sanctions, and maybe even a US blockade of ships going to China through the Straight of Malacca, but Xi seems very determined and he can credibly threaten nuclear strikes on US cities.
(China would not get to keep TSMC’s chip fabs, they would be electronically destroyed as mentioned in the podcast.)
Hi Joel, thanks for writing a great article!
You discuss how difficult it would be for China to mount a land invasion of Taiwan, what’s your take on the likelihood/impact of a blockade instead? In the recent 80,000 Hours podcast with Hugh White, he predicted the “smartest” (if still grim) outcome is that China blockades Taiwan, the US sabotages Taiwan’s frontier chip fabs, and then the US steps back in order to avoid a larger conflict. Does this seem plausible or do you disagree?
You’re welcome! Thanks for the kind words.
I think the likelihood of a blockade is lower than the metaculus community, but this is a low volume question.
I disagree with Hugh White. This is for a couple weak reasons.
Many of the experts I trust seem to think this is a less likely scenario. I don’t know Hugh White well, but he came off a bit more “talking head” than calibrated analyst (or hedgehog than fox) to me (I’ll probably try and explain this in another comment).
My model of Xi / the PRC is that they want to minimize the time they’re exposed to potential diplomatic pushback. I guess that fait accompli = good, with the example of the Russian occupation of Crimea as ideal. Act before anyone can really get angry. A blockade seems like something they may want to threaten but I doubt they want to engage in.
It would potentially take a really long time to squeeze Taiwan (6 months to 2 years?). All this time could potentially galvanize global support for Taiwan, and consolidate anti-PRC / resistance sentiment within the country. It’s hard to justify internationally that you are trying to starve a whole country. It’s probably harder to justify than what I expect the PRC would prefer which is to actually do what Russia planned on doing—a quick 3 day operation where they take out military sites and the head of government and say “we had information Taiwan was about to declare independence. We have taken out the separatists, and protected the unity of the Chinese people.”
During this time it wouldn’t be too hard for Taiwan to ensure their fabs are destroyed if the PRC invades and to smuggle out key TSMC staff to Japan / USA in return for USA airlifts or something.
Indeed, I’m pretty sure blockades are considered an act of war under international law. If so, this would potentially allow Taiwan / the USA to attempt to break the blockade at a time of their choosing with justification. So I think a blockade could potentially leave the Chinese navy very vulnerable.
Blockades don’t have a strong track record of forcing capitulation. See Israel and Gaza, USA and Cuba, or USSR and Berlin.
If they fail then the PRC has lost their opportunity for a surprise attack and a good amount of credibility.
I strongly doubt the USA would sabotage Taiwan fabs. I mean, I think if anything Taiwan would do this themselves (but only if a Chinese invasion was inevitable). Sure the USA, may want to make sure Taiwan has these plans, but I don’t think they’d unilaterally sabotage the fabs. Is there any precedent for anything like this? We didn’t even destroy a fraction our massive amounts of valuable US hardware from getting into the hands of the Taliban—granted those were tactical rather than strategic assets. Maybe I’d update this if it turns out the USA was behind Nordstream 2 -- I thought that turned out to be Ukraine though.
But I’d welcome more forecasts and breakdowns of these scenarios!
I agree with Hugh White’s 80k podcast. Unfortunately, Taiwan doesn’t stand much of a chance.
China’s best option is to declare a complete blockade/seige on Taiwan: no ship or aircraft allowed to reach Taiwan, not even food, with the goal of starving Taiwan into submission. If they do this before Trump leaves office, the cost-benefit analysis for Trump is so badly against going to war with China, that the US seems unlikely to go to war, and Taiwan would have no choice but to fold.
China would still have to deal with massive sanctions, and maybe even a US blockade of ships going to China through the Straight of Malacca, but Xi seems very determined and he can credibly threaten nuclear strikes on US cities.
(China would not get to keep TSMC’s chip fabs, they would be electronically destroyed as mentioned in the podcast.)