I say “seems like a bit of a”; I get that it’s not literally infinitesimal odds (or an astronomical payout[1]), but it’s small enough that it’s similarly not worth going for imo.
Start-ups that could change the world, promising AI research paths, running for president or prime minister
I don’t think any of these are one-in-a-million chances for most people, let alone most EAs, and if anyone goes into them thinking they are, they should be doing something else! Hundred-to-one or even thousand-to-one shots are reasonable for EAs to be making I think, but not million-to-one (or worse). This is especially true given the current size of the community (it would make more sense going for million-to-one opportunities if there were of the order of a million other EAs going for them).
And the odds are certain, and the payout more certain than with most Pascal’s Muggings, but still not certain, as it depends on the number of other potential winners
I say “seems like a bit of a”; I get that it’s not literally infinitesimal odds (or an astronomical payout[1]), but it’s small enough that it’s similarly not worth going for imo.
I don’t think any of these are one-in-a-million chances for most people, let alone most EAs, and if anyone goes into them thinking they are, they should be doing something else! Hundred-to-one or even thousand-to-one shots are reasonable for EAs to be making I think, but not million-to-one (or worse). This is especially true given the current size of the community (it would make more sense going for million-to-one opportunities if there were of the order of a million other EAs going for them).
And the odds are certain, and the payout more certain than with most Pascal’s Muggings, but still not certain, as it depends on the number of other potential winners