If EA charities and causes have decreasing marginal returns to additional funding, is this still worth it? This is a 10% increase in funding in expectation, driven by low probability tails of millions of dollars that might be much less cost-effective on the margin, unless you can buy enough tickets, I guess. And if you do buy tons of tickets, does your EV per ticket get worse the more tickets you buy? How much worse?
If EA charities and causes have decreasing marginal returns to additional funding, is this still worth it? This is a 10% increase in funding in expectation, driven by low probability tails of millions of dollars that might be much less cost-effective on the margin, unless you can buy enough tickets, I guess. And if you do buy tons of tickets, does your EV per ticket get worse the more tickets you buy? How much worse?