@titotal I’m curious whether or to what extent we substantively disagree, so I’d be interested in what specific numbers you’d anticipate, if you’d be interested in sharing.
My guess is that we’ll most likely see <30% reduction in people first hearing about EA from 80K next time we run the survey (though this might be confounded if 80K don’t promote the EA Survey so much, so we’d need to control for that).
Obviously we can’t directly observe this counterfactual, but I’d guess that if a form of outreach that was 100% active shut down, we’d observe close to a 100% reduction (e.g. if everyone stopped running EA Groups or EAGs, we’d soon see ~0% people hearing about EA from these sources).[1]
I don’t say strictly 0% only because I think there’s always the possibility for a few unusual cases, e.g. someone is googling how to do good and happens across an old post about EAG or their inactive local group.
@titotal I’m curious whether or to what extent we substantively disagree, so I’d be interested in what specific numbers you’d anticipate, if you’d be interested in sharing.
My guess is that we’ll most likely see <30% reduction in people first hearing about EA from 80K next time we run the survey (though this might be confounded if 80K don’t promote the EA Survey so much, so we’d need to control for that).
Obviously we can’t directly observe this counterfactual, but I’d guess that if a form of outreach that was 100% active shut down, we’d observe close to a 100% reduction (e.g. if everyone stopped running EA Groups or EAGs, we’d soon see ~0% people hearing about EA from these sources).[1]
I don’t say strictly 0% only because I think there’s always the possibility for a few unusual cases, e.g. someone is googling how to do good and happens across an old post about EAG or their inactive local group.