Feels unlikely either that it would create an actually valid natural experiment (as you acknowledge, it’s not a huge proportion of aid, and there are a lot of other factors that affect a country) or persuade people to do aid differently.
Particularly when EA’s GHD programmes tend to be already focused on stuff which is well-evidenced at a granular level (malaria cures and vitamin supplementation) and targeted at specific countries with those problems (not all developing countries have malaria), by organizations that are not necessarily themselves EA, and a lot of non-EA funders are also trying to solve those problems in similar or identical ways.
Also feels like it would be a poor decision for, say, a Charity Entrepreneurship founder trying to solve a problem she identified as one she could make a major difference with based on her extensive knowledge of poverty in India deciding to try the programme in a potentially different Guinean context she doesn’t have the same background understanding of simply because other EAs happened to have diverted funding to Guinea for signalling purposes.
Feels unlikely either that it would create an actually valid natural experiment (as you acknowledge, it’s not a huge proportion of aid, and there are a lot of other factors that affect a country) or persuade people to do aid differently.
Particularly when EA’s GHD programmes tend to be already focused on stuff which is well-evidenced at a granular level (malaria cures and vitamin supplementation) and targeted at specific countries with those problems (not all developing countries have malaria), by organizations that are not necessarily themselves EA, and a lot of non-EA funders are also trying to solve those problems in similar or identical ways.
Also feels like it would be a poor decision for, say, a Charity Entrepreneurship founder trying to solve a problem she identified as one she could make a major difference with based on her extensive knowledge of poverty in India deciding to try the programme in a potentially different Guinean context she doesn’t have the same background understanding of simply because other EAs happened to have diverted funding to Guinea for signalling purposes.