if the failure mode of this advice is a bunch of people trying to prevent biorisks that kill billions of people but doesn’t actually permanently derail civilisation, I’m pretty fine with that? That feels like a great outcome to me.
For me this is the key point. I feel that the emphasis on longtermism for longtermism’s sake in some influential corners of EA might have the effect of prolonging the neglectedness of catastrophic-but-not-existential risks, which IMHO are far more likely and worth worrying about. It’s not exactly a distraction since work on x-risks is generally pretty helpful for work on GCRs as well, but I do think Neel’s approach would bring more people into the fold.
For me this is the key point. I feel that the emphasis on longtermism for longtermism’s sake in some influential corners of EA might have the effect of prolonging the neglectedness of catastrophic-but-not-existential risks, which IMHO are far more likely and worth worrying about. It’s not exactly a distraction since work on x-risks is generally pretty helpful for work on GCRs as well, but I do think Neel’s approach would bring more people into the fold.