Thanks for letting us know about this great opportunity! While I’m waiting to be approved for the Facebook group, is there any way to find out how much money is going to be chasing the $2 million match? Since this is not just EAs and there appear to be hundreds of charities listed, it could easily be $100 million, so then do you think we will have something like 3 minutes or 3 seconds to do the donation before the $2 million match limit is reached?
Also, the match last year was for $500K instead of $2MM. From the same source:
After the initial match of $500,000 was reached within hours, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation increased their pledge to $900,000 total to match more Giving Tuesday Fundraisers on Facebook.
So I think 3 minutes is overkill. While apriori I would be expecting people to take advantage of this such that $2MM in donations are made in the first ~3 minutes, I think that last year shows that this is unlikely to happen. I would be surprised if the $2MM match is reached in less than 30 minutes. I’ll assign a 20% probability to that happening somewhat arbitrarily. And maybe a 5% chance to it being reached in less than 10 minutes. My median estimate would be around 9:30 EST (1.5 hours). And maybe a 20% chance that it takes more than 3 hours. Although I don’t really know, so my suggestion is to donate ASAP. If you’re donating more than just a small amount it’s worth it even if it’s inconvenient.
I intend to make all of my donations ASAP after 8:00 AM EST. (I am going to try to make 10 separate $1,000 donations before 8:10 AM EST).
Thanks for letting us know about this great opportunity! While I’m waiting to be approved for the Facebook group, is there any way to find out how much money is going to be chasing the $2 million match? Since this is not just EAs and there appear to be hundreds of charities listed, it could easily be $100 million, so then do you think we will have something like 3 minutes or 3 seconds to do the donation before the $2 million match limit is reached?
This year I expect it to be more, though I’m not well-informed on how much more. Perhaps $10-$20MM is a reasonable expectation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giving_Tuesday
Also, the match last year was for $500K instead of $2MM. From the same source:
Note that last year’s matching campaign was also announced in advance.
So I think 3 minutes is overkill. While apriori I would be expecting people to take advantage of this such that $2MM in donations are made in the first ~3 minutes, I think that last year shows that this is unlikely to happen. I would be surprised if the $2MM match is reached in less than 30 minutes. I’ll assign a 20% probability to that happening somewhat arbitrarily. And maybe a 5% chance to it being reached in less than 10 minutes. My median estimate would be around 9:30 EST (1.5 hours). And maybe a 20% chance that it takes more than 3 hours. Although I don’t really know, so my suggestion is to donate ASAP. If you’re donating more than just a small amount it’s worth it even if it’s inconvenient.
I intend to make all of my donations ASAP after 8:00 AM EST. (I am going to try to make 10 separate $1,000 donations before 8:10 AM EST).