Separate from object-level disagreements, my crux that people can have inside-view models which “rule out” other people’s models (as well as outside-view considerations) in a way that leads to assigning very high likelihoods (i.e. 99%+) to certain outcomes.
The fact that they haven’t successfully communicated their models to you is certainly a reason for you to not update strongly in their direction, but it doesn’t mean much for their internal epistemic stance.
Separate from object-level disagreements, my crux that people can have inside-view models which “rule out” other people’s models (as well as outside-view considerations) in a way that leads to assigning very high likelihoods (i.e. 99%+) to certain outcomes.
The fact that they haven’t successfully communicated their models to you is certainly a reason for you to not update strongly in their direction, but it doesn’t mean much for their internal epistemic stance.