I checked the pages for each charity to get the scores.
I agree that AWF doesnât directly evaluate cost-effectiveness, but I still think thereâs a good chance theyâre likely to be the EV maximizing option over THL. THL estimates that it costs them $2.63 to move a hen from a conventional to a cage-free system, or about 0.57 yr/â$ given a 1.5-year lifespan. Last year, Emily Oehlsen from Open Phil said âWe think that the marginal [farmed animal welfare] funding opportunity is ~1/â5th as cost-effective as the average from Sauliusâ analysis.â Sauliusâs 2019 analysis estimated that corporate campaigns pre-2019 impacted 41 chicken-years per dollar, so at a 5x reduction thatâs 8.2 yr/â$. I donât want to take Emilyâs numbers too literally, but that implies a >10x gap between the cost effectiveness values of OPâs marginal funding opportunity and THL. Since Iâd expect AWFâs opportunities to look somewhat similar to OPâs, that leads me to guess that theyâre likely to be on net more cost-effective than THL. This directionally agrees with some of the comments by insiders such as @James Ăzden on the GWWC evaluations thread as well. But Iâd be very curious to hear more from folks who are more plugged in, this is just an outsiderâs guess.
For what itâs worth, I do actually give to both AWF and THL, but give much more to AWF.
Interesting! Open Philanthropy (OP) granted 8.3 M$ to THL in 2023, and Animal Charity Evaluatorsâ 2023 review of THL mentioned a funding gap for 2024 and 2025 of 10.5 M$. So I assume OPâs last $ going to THL each year is either at or above OPâs cost-effectiveness bar (it could be above because OP may not want to provide more than a certain fraction of the total funding of THL). However, in this case, I do not understand why the cost-effectiveness implied by Emilyâs statement differs from THLâs estimate. @Martin Gould or @EmmaTheresa may have thoughts on this.
I clicked on the link over âjust $2.63 to spare a henâ on the page from THL you linked, but it is broken[1].
I sent an email to info@thehumaneleague.org informing THL about it, and asking them if they could share how they obtained their cost-effectiveness estimate.
Please donât treat cost-effectiveness estimates as such an exact science. There are so many subjective choices you make in them. For example, you could say that cage-free campaigns speed up changes by 5 years, or 50 years. Both choices are defensible but the result will be 10 times different just based on this choice alone.
Itâs impossible to tell without seeing the THLâs estimate, but they probably were conservative when estimating their cost-effectiveness. Itâs what I would do if I was doing such estimate for THL. $2.63 per hen impacted is already high enough for most people to want to donate. Maybe itâs even better because itâs more believable. And if they make it less conservative, someone might criticize them. In any case, THL took down the $2.63 estimate, so thatâs a strong reason not to treat it seriously.
Thanks Vasco!
I checked the pages for each charity to get the scores.
I agree that AWF doesnât directly evaluate cost-effectiveness, but I still think thereâs a good chance theyâre likely to be the EV maximizing option over THL. THL estimates that it costs them $2.63 to move a hen from a conventional to a cage-free system, or about 0.57 yr/â$ given a 1.5-year lifespan. Last year, Emily Oehlsen from Open Phil said âWe think that the marginal [farmed animal welfare] funding opportunity is ~1/â5th as cost-effective as the average from Sauliusâ analysis.â Sauliusâs 2019 analysis estimated that corporate campaigns pre-2019 impacted 41 chicken-years per dollar, so at a 5x reduction thatâs 8.2 yr/â$. I donât want to take Emilyâs numbers too literally, but that implies a >10x gap between the cost effectiveness values of OPâs marginal funding opportunity and THL. Since Iâd expect AWFâs opportunities to look somewhat similar to OPâs, that leads me to guess that theyâre likely to be on net more cost-effective than THL. This directionally agrees with some of the comments by insiders such as @James Ăzden on the GWWC evaluations thread as well. But Iâd be very curious to hear more from folks who are more plugged in, this is just an outsiderâs guess.
For what itâs worth, I do actually give to both AWF and THL, but give much more to AWF.
Interesting! Open Philanthropy (OP) granted 8.3 M$ to THL in 2023, and Animal Charity Evaluatorsâ 2023 review of THL mentioned a funding gap for 2024 and 2025 of 10.5 M$. So I assume OPâs last $ going to THL each year is either at or above OPâs cost-effectiveness bar (it could be above because OP may not want to provide more than a certain fraction of the total funding of THL). However, in this case, I do not understand why the cost-effectiveness implied by Emilyâs statement differs from THLâs estimate. @Martin Gould or @EmmaTheresa may have thoughts on this.
I clicked on the link over âjust $2.63 to spare a henâ on the page from THL you linked, but it is broken[1].
I sent an email to info@thehumaneleague.org informing THL about it, and asking them if they could share how they obtained their cost-effectiveness estimate.
Please donât treat cost-effectiveness estimates as such an exact science. There are so many subjective choices you make in them. For example, you could say that cage-free campaigns speed up changes by 5 years, or 50 years. Both choices are defensible but the result will be 10 times different just based on this choice alone.
Itâs impossible to tell without seeing the THLâs estimate, but they probably were conservative when estimating their cost-effectiveness. Itâs what I would do if I was doing such estimate for THL. $2.63 per hen impacted is already high enough for most people to want to donate. Maybe itâs even better because itâs more believable. And if they make it less conservative, someone might criticize them. In any case, THL took down the $2.63 estimate, so thatâs a strong reason not to treat it seriously.
Yeah this is a really good point, I have no idea how to square the numbers with big grants from OP to THL