I think there’s something like a, I don’t know, maybe 95% chance the AI industry is in a bubble. (I explained the evidence and reasoning for this at length here.) I have no idea how an AI bubble popping might affect the likelihood or the timing of an IPO. I strongly believe the bubble will pop eventually, but I have no idea when — everyone agrees you can’t time the market and you can’t time bubbles. I also have no idea when (or even if) Anthropic is planning to do an IPO. There’s so much complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. So, I don’t know how the probability of a bubble would affect your personal donation decisions.
Another thing that’s uncertain is how severe the bubble pop will be. Let’s say we think that Anthropic is valued at $300 billion or $350 billion now. Anthropic could get absolutely decimated on valuation and go down to, say, $100 billion. But the founders’ and early employees’ equity would still be worth billions. [Edit: to clarify, I’m not predicting this, just giving an example of how even a huge drop in valuation would still leave the founders/​early employees very rich.]
i don’t trust any take which is that confident that any industry is a Bubble. Even the best economists are terrible at predicting bubbles and the market is not completely useless at predicting things either.
The market is a curious thing. The market is efficient, yet if no one disagreed with the market, it wouldn’t be. Human life is suffused with paradox and mystery.
By the way, the job market is getting worse while oil & inflation aren’t likely to see increases due to decreased demand/​a recession.
Bad labor market & no extra inflation mean likely more FED cuts which makes it more likely the bubble will extend a bit further. I’ve continued to invest in AI for now but I plan to build a hedge position sometime in 2026.
I think there’s something like a, I don’t know, maybe 95% chance the AI industry is in a bubble. (I explained the evidence and reasoning for this at length here.) I have no idea how an AI bubble popping might affect the likelihood or the timing of an IPO. I strongly believe the bubble will pop eventually, but I have no idea when — everyone agrees you can’t time the market and you can’t time bubbles. I also have no idea when (or even if) Anthropic is planning to do an IPO. There’s so much complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. So, I don’t know how the probability of a bubble would affect your personal donation decisions.
Another thing that’s uncertain is how severe the bubble pop will be. Let’s say we think that Anthropic is valued at $300 billion or $350 billion now. Anthropic could get absolutely decimated on valuation and go down to, say, $100 billion. But the founders’ and early employees’ equity would still be worth billions. [Edit: to clarify, I’m not predicting this, just giving an example of how even a huge drop in valuation would still leave the founders/​early employees very rich.]
i don’t trust any take which is that confident that any industry is a Bubble. Even the best economists are terrible at predicting bubbles and the market is not completely useless at predicting things either.
The market is a curious thing. The market is efficient, yet if no one disagreed with the market, it wouldn’t be. Human life is suffused with paradox and mystery.
By the way, the job market is getting worse while oil & inflation aren’t likely to see increases due to decreased demand/​a recession.
Bad labor market & no extra inflation mean likely more FED cuts which makes it more likely the bubble will extend a bit further. I’ve continued to invest in AI for now but I plan to build a hedge position sometime in 2026.