Posting this on shortform rather than as a comment because I feel like it’s more personal musings than a contribution to the audience of the original post —
What should my prior be about the likelihood of being at the hinge of history? I feel really interested in this question, but haven’t even fully read the comments on the subject. TODO.
How much evidence do I have for the Yudkowsky-Bostrom framework? I’d like to get better at comparing the strength of an argument to the power of a study.
Suppose I think that this argument holds. Then it seems like I can make claims about AI occurring because I’ve thought about the prior that I have a lot of influence. I keep going back and forth about whether this is a valid move. I think it just is, but I assign some credence that I’d reject it if I thought more about it.
What should my estimate of the likelihood we’re at the HoH if I’m 90% confident in the arguments presented in the post?
Posting this on shortform rather than as a comment because I feel like it’s more personal musings than a contribution to the audience of the original post —
Things I’m confused about after reading Will’s post, Are we living at the most influential time in history?:
What should my prior be about the likelihood of being at the hinge of history? I feel really interested in this question, but haven’t even fully read the comments on the subject. TODO.
How much evidence do I have for the Yudkowsky-Bostrom framework? I’d like to get better at comparing the strength of an argument to the power of a study.
Suppose I think that this argument holds. Then it seems like I can make claims about AI occurring because I’ve thought about the prior that I have a lot of influence. I keep going back and forth about whether this is a valid move. I think it just is, but I assign some credence that I’d reject it if I thought more about it.
What should my estimate of the likelihood we’re at the HoH if I’m 90% confident in the arguments presented in the post?