A black swan event? Like voyager? Celcius? Terra-luna? (all in the last year, the list of crypto collapses is endless)
You can’t call something a black swan event if similar events happen every couple months. The crypto sector was in a huge speculative bubble, literally everyone knew it, SBF practically admitted it months ago. The only actual surprise was how explicitly fraudulent the collapse was.
I assumed the OP was referring to the alleged fraud. “It looks like one of the many ‘key EA figures who some people thought was a total a**hole’ ended up committing one of the worst financial crimes in history” still sounds like a black swan event to me. And it’s had much worse effects than a regular crypto collapse.
I think people are misusing the phrase “black swan” to mean “unlikely”, rather than “beyond the reach of normal expectations”. Predicting beforehand, I would have guessed FTX would go down via incompetence or exposure to other collapsing assets rather than direct fraud, but it certainly would have been on the list. I mean, cmon, these are pretty much unregulated offshore casinos.
Good point. It’s important to note that black swans are subjective and depend on the person. For example, a Christmas turkey’s slaughter is a black swan for it but not for its butcher.
A black swan event? Like voyager? Celcius? Terra-luna? (all in the last year, the list of crypto collapses is endless)
You can’t call something a black swan event if similar events happen every couple months. The crypto sector was in a huge speculative bubble, literally everyone knew it, SBF practically admitted it months ago. The only actual surprise was how explicitly fraudulent the collapse was.
I assumed the OP was referring to the alleged fraud. “It looks like one of the many ‘key EA figures who some people thought was a total a**hole’ ended up committing one of the worst financial crimes in history” still sounds like a black swan event to me. And it’s had much worse effects than a regular crypto collapse.
I think people are misusing the phrase “black swan” to mean “unlikely”, rather than “beyond the reach of normal expectations”. Predicting beforehand, I would have guessed FTX would go down via incompetence or exposure to other collapsing assets rather than direct fraud, but it certainly would have been on the list. I mean, cmon, these are pretty much unregulated offshore casinos.
Good point. It’s important to note that black swans are subjective and depend on the person. For example, a Christmas turkey’s slaughter is a black swan for it but not for its butcher.